Re: Bias of our low-extinction method

From: Ariel Goobar (ariel@physto.se)
Date: Fri May 23 2003 - 00:28:26 PDT

  • Next message: Robert A. Knop Jr.: "Re: Bias of our low-extinction method"

    Hi Greg,
    that sounds interesting. Have you tried what happens when
    adding a Gaussian intrinsic spred in B-V around 0.05 mag?
    As you point out the effect will be highly dependent on the
    the flux limit you use in your simulations. I am not sure
    there is a perfect 1-to-1 correspondence with the
    parameter you used (dim-cut). There are a few steps between
    candidate discovery (a different stages in the I-band LC,
    stretches, spectroscopy screening, K-corrs, LC fit, etc) and
    the residual showing up in Rob's Hubble diagram.
    Ariel

    On Thu, 22 May 2003, Greg Aldering wrote:

    >
    > I have simulated the behavior of our low-extinction method. I started
    > with the models of Hatano, Branch and Deaton, which provide the
    > probability distribution function of B-band extinction, A_B, for SNe
    > observed through spiral and elliptical galaxies viewed at various
    > orientations. I generated random values of A_B following this
    > distribution function, but adding a flux-limit bias which depresses the
    > probability of finding extincted SNe in proportion to the volume of
    > space in which they would be accessible in a flux-limited sample. I
    > next "observed" them by randomly chosing an E(B-V) error bar and then
    > generating a Gaussian deviate with this error bar, and adding the
    > result to the generated value of A_B. I then applied the cuts a SNe
    > currently must pass to be included in the low-extinction subset in the
    > HST paper:
    >
    > sigma R-I < 0.25
    > E(B-V) < 0.1 or E(B-V) < 2*(sigma E(B-V))
    >
    > I also added a too-faint cut, requiring that SN not be fainter than N
    > times its magnitude uncertainty (including an intrinsic error of
    > 0.17). In Rob's last fits, all the residuals were within 3-sigma for
    > the low-extinction subset, even though no cut on deviation was
    > applied. Thus, my cut considers the likelihood that if there were a
    > significantly dim outlier we might have chosed to reject it even
    > without a well-measured color to prove that it is reddened.
    >
    > I find that our method does have a bias, but that the bias is small
    > compared to our other systematics. However, it might not be small
    > relative to the Riess prior (that has to be checked).
    >
    > Here is what I get:
    >
    > N-sigma <A_B> <A_B> Bias
    > dim cut low-z high-z low-high
    > -------------------------------------
    > 2.0 0.068 0.081 0.013
    > 2.5 0.075 0.094 0.019
    > 3.0 0.080 0.104 0.024
    >
    > All mean A_B values are in magnitudes. Basically what happens is that
    > the requirement that E(B-V) < 2*(sigma E(B-V)) lets in SNe which are
    > more reddened than E(B-V) < 0.1. This effect is larger at high redshift
    > because the errors are larger. Note also that the average is not zero,
    > and in fact the mode is not zero either. For our current method, I
    > estimate that the bias is about 0.024 magnitudes in the sense that the
    > high-redshift SNe are dimmer. This depresses Omega_M by a comparable
    > amount.
    >
    > Note that if I do not include the flux-limit suppression, our bias is
    > worse. So, we would expect the low-extinction technique to perform
    > worse in a volume-limited sample.
    >
    > - Greg
    >
    >

    -- 
    ___________________________________________________________________
    Ariel Goobar (www.physto.se/~ariel)
    Department of Physics, Stockholm University
    AlbaNova University Center, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SWEDEN
    tel: +46 8 55378659 fax: +46 8 55378601 
    


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