Re: Bias of our low-extinction method

From: Ariel Goobar (ariel@physto.se)
Date: Fri May 23 2003 - 09:58:38 PDT

  • Next message: Greg Aldering: "Re: Bias of our low-extinction method"

    Hi Greg,
    Have you tried to reproduce Phillips' result? As you
    know, he got a spread in the fitted max(B-V)~0.03 only after we selected
    the SNe that had extremely small scatter in B-V at late times... Clearly
    a "special" subsample of SNe. I don't think I know enough to exclude
    the possibility I suggested, but maybe you know more.

    Cheers,
            Ariel

    On Fri, 23 May 2003, Greg Aldering wrote:

    >
    > Hi Ariel,
    >
    > You're right that the other steps subsequent to discovery will have
    > important effects. In fact, I think that the reason why we see relatively
    > more extincted SNe at low redshift from the 1998 search is not only due to
    > the survey flux limit allowing them to be found, but also because their
    > observed magnitudes were similar to those of unextincted high-redshift SNe
    > - which were the ones we were really after - and we didn't have time (due
    > to weather) to check out all the candidates. So, these additional affects
    > can both help and hurt us in terms of allowing extincted SNe into the
    > sample. Unfortunately, I have no means of recreating these in a
    > simulation because of the important subjective component. This was also a
    > limitation in what could be said about Malmquist bias for this dataset.
    >
    > As for the intrinsic color dispersion of 0.05 mag, I haven't tried that.
    > I've read Serena's paper, but have to say I'm not really convinced of that
    > color dispersion, since if it were present one could not get an intrinsic
    > scatter of 0.11 mag about the Hubble diagram after extinction correction.
    > However, I will grant that there many be bonifide color outliers, since
    > Phillips had to cut out objects with B-V > 0.2 to get his nice dispersion.
    > So, a Gaussian core with sigma < 0.05, with some non-Gaussian outliers -
    > that I would believe. But then throwing those all together and calling it
    > a Gaussian dispersion doesn't seem the thing to do. The fact that Phillips
    > could make a color cut for extreme color and then get a small scatter
    > suggests to me that the outlier population gives itself away, and is not
    > hiding within a Gaussian distribution.
    >
    > Cheers,
    >
    > Greg
    >
    >
    > On Fri, 23 May 2003, Ariel Goobar wrote:
    >
    > > Hi Greg,
    > > that sounds interesting. Have you tried what happens when
    > > adding a Gaussian intrinsic spred in B-V around 0.05 mag?
    > > As you point out the effect will be highly dependent on the
    > > the flux limit you use in your simulations. I am not sure
    > > there is a perfect 1-to-1 correspondence with the
    > > parameter you used (dim-cut). There are a few steps between
    > > candidate discovery (a different stages in the I-band LC,
    > > stretches, spectroscopy screening, K-corrs, LC fit, etc) and
    > > the residual showing up in Rob's Hubble diagram.
    > > Ariel
    > >
    > > On Thu, 22 May 2003, Greg Aldering wrote:
    > >
    > > >
    > > > I have simulated the behavior of our low-extinction method. I started
    > > > with the models of Hatano, Branch and Deaton, which provide the
    > > > probability distribution function of B-band extinction, A_B, for SNe
    > > > observed through spiral and elliptical galaxies viewed at various
    > > > orientations. I generated random values of A_B following this
    > > > distribution function, but adding a flux-limit bias which depresses the
    > > > probability of finding extincted SNe in proportion to the volume of
    > > > space in which they would be accessible in a flux-limited sample. I
    > > > next "observed" them by randomly chosing an E(B-V) error bar and then
    > > > generating a Gaussian deviate with this error bar, and adding the
    > > > result to the generated value of A_B. I then applied the cuts a SNe
    > > > currently must pass to be included in the low-extinction subset in the
    > > > HST paper:
    > > >
    > > > sigma R-I < 0.25
    > > > E(B-V) < 0.1 or E(B-V) < 2*(sigma E(B-V))
    > > >
    > > > I also added a too-faint cut, requiring that SN not be fainter than N
    > > > times its magnitude uncertainty (including an intrinsic error of
    > > > 0.17). In Rob's last fits, all the residuals were within 3-sigma for
    > > > the low-extinction subset, even though no cut on deviation was
    > > > applied. Thus, my cut considers the likelihood that if there were a
    > > > significantly dim outlier we might have chosed to reject it even
    > > > without a well-measured color to prove that it is reddened.
    > > >
    > > > I find that our method does have a bias, but that the bias is small
    > > > compared to our other systematics. However, it might not be small
    > > > relative to the Riess prior (that has to be checked).
    > > >
    > > > Here is what I get:
    > > >
    > > > N-sigma <A_B> <A_B> Bias
    > > > dim cut low-z high-z low-high
    > > > -------------------------------------
    > > > 2.0 0.068 0.081 0.013
    > > > 2.5 0.075 0.094 0.019
    > > > 3.0 0.080 0.104 0.024
    > > >
    > > > All mean A_B values are in magnitudes. Basically what happens is that
    > > > the requirement that E(B-V) < 2*(sigma E(B-V)) lets in SNe which are
    > > > more reddened than E(B-V) < 0.1. This effect is larger at high redshift
    > > > because the errors are larger. Note also that the average is not zero,
    > > > and in fact the mode is not zero either. For our current method, I
    > > > estimate that the bias is about 0.024 magnitudes in the sense that the
    > > > high-redshift SNe are dimmer. This depresses Omega_M by a comparable
    > > > amount.
    > > >
    > > > Note that if I do not include the flux-limit suppression, our bias is
    > > > worse. So, we would expect the low-extinction technique to perform
    > > > worse in a volume-limited sample.
    > > >
    > > > - Greg
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > --
    > > ___________________________________________________________________
    > > Ariel Goobar (www.physto.se/~ariel)
    > > Department of Physics, Stockholm University
    > > AlbaNova University Center, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SWEDEN
    > > tel: +46 8 55378659 fax: +46 8 55378601
    > >
    >
    >

    -- 
    ___________________________________________________________________
    Ariel Goobar (www.physto.se/~ariel)
    Department of Physics, Stockholm University
    AlbaNova University Center, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SWEDEN
    tel: +46 8 55378659 fax: +46 8 55378601 
    


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